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MLBΒ·Daily HR PropsΒ·+EV Edge Reports

WE DO THE MATH.YOU CASH THE TICKET.

Model probability vs book implied probability. EV per dollar. Kelly sizing. Before first pitch.

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in leaderboard
Elite plays
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highest tier
+EV plays
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positive edge
Top model%
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highest probability
CONSENSUS ENGINE β€” V1.0
Two independent rankers β€” the 65-feature XGBoost model and a 3-feature sharp heuristic (recent HRs Β· park Β· starter HR/9, bullpen exposure deferred to v1.1) β€” score the slate. Picks are tiered by where they agree: Consensus = both lists rank the batter highly, Watchlist = model alone, Sharp Lean = heuristic alone. Edge / Kelly / EV shown only where both methods agree the pick is well-modeled.
πŸ₯‡ Consensus Picks β€” Both Models Agree
Batter ranks in model top-10 AND heuristic top-5. Edge / Kelly / EV displayed.
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πŸ‘ Model Watchlist β€” Complex model likes these but heuristic disagrees
Tracked for 3-week validation. Not the recommended pick.

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🎯 Sharp Lean β€” Simple model likes these but complex model misses them
Top-3 only. Edge / Kelly / EV not computed (model_p uncalibrated for heuristic-only picks).

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Model probability exceeds book implied odds Β· +400 or greater
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