Daily MLB HR props and NFL TD edges. Model probability vs. book implied probability. EV per dollar. In your inbox before first pitch.
Every morning before the books open. Every day of the season.
Oracle-kun's model vs. the books. Green = positive expected value. Full report unlocked for subscribers — updates daily at 9:05 AM ET.
Full edge report with real-time odds delivered daily to premium subscribers
UNLOCK FULL REPORT →Four betting archetypes. One guides every pick. Find out which one matches your style.
The wise stat spirit who guides every pick. Humble about variance, electric about edges. Admits when the model misses — then comes back stronger.
3 questions. Oracle-kun assigns your archetype instantly.
Daily MLB HR edge reports. Weekly NFL TD props.
Model probability, book implied probability, EV per dollar.
Delivered before first pitch. Every day.
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Psychic Winner uses an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 1.54 million Statcast plate appearances. Features include barrel rate, exit velocity, launch angle, park factors, platoon splits, batter-vs-pitcher history, pitch mix vulnerability, umpire tendencies, and weather adjustments. The model outputs a per-player HR probability for each day's matchups, which is compared against the sportsbook's implied probability to identify positive expected value edges.
Expected value measures the average return per dollar wagered over many bets. A positive EV edge means the model's estimated probability is higher than what the sportsbook's odds imply — meaning the bet is mathematically underpriced. Psychic Winner calculates EV per $1 wagered for every player so you can prioritize the highest-value plays each day.
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that calculates the optimal percentage of your bankroll to wager on a bet given your edge and the odds. Psychic Winner computes Kelly% for every pick — so instead of flat-betting, you can size each wager proportionally to its edge. Higher Kelly% = higher confidence edge.
MOONSHOT picks are longshot home run props at +400 odds or greater where the model's probability still exceeds the book's implied probability — creating a positive EV edge at high payout. Platoon splits, bullpen exposure, park factors, and recent form create exploitable edges even at long odds. One MOONSHOT hit can pay for weeks of subscription.
The top daily pick is free via the newsletter. Full access — including the complete HR edge leaderboard, EV per dollar, Kelly sizing, tier rankings (Elite / Strong / Lean), MOONSHOT longshots, and the live MLB scoreboard with pick highlights — is $25/month. Cancel anytime.
The current model (XGBoost, pitchmix + park splits) achieves a ROC-AUC of 0.9731 on held-out data, trained on 1.54 million plate appearances with a 60-day recency decay to weight recent hot streaks higher. Live outcome tracking activates in the dashboard after sufficient games accumulate each week.